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WYNN RESORTS LTD (WYNN)·Q2 2025 Earnings Summary

Executive Summary

  • Q2 2025 delivered stable topline but softer earnings: operating revenues were $1.74B (+0.3% YoY, +2.2% QoQ), GAAP diluted EPS was $0.64 (vs $0.91 YoY), and adjusted EPS was $1.09 . Versus S&P Global consensus, revenue missed by ~$9.6M (-0.6%), adjusted EPS missed by ~$0.10 (-8.9%), and EBITDA missed materially (consensus $551.7M vs actual $427.6M)*.
  • Las Vegas posted a new Q2 record Adjusted Property EBITDAR of $234.8M, with margin of 36.8% despite low hold; Encore Boston Harbor grew EBITDAR 3% YoY; Macau volumes were healthy, but VIP/mass hold depressed EBITDAR, notably at Wynn Palace .
  • Capital allocation and balance sheet actions: $158.1M buybacks at ~$78.88/share and a $0.25 dividend (payable Aug 29); liquidity strengthened via a $500M WRF revolver upsize and Macau revolver capacity increased by $1.0B equivalent to $2.5B total .
  • Management reiterated positive Las Vegas booking momentum heading into Q4 and 2026, and accelerating Macau volumes in July despite weather, while progressing UAE Wynn Al Marjan (floor 61 poured; opening expected 2027) .

Note: *Values retrieved from S&P Global.

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

What Went Well

  • Las Vegas strength and share gains: “EBITDA in Las Vegas grew to a new second quarter record, up 2% YoY to nearly $235M… demand was healthy… driving a 14.5% increase in total casino revenues,” with July casino momentum and strong retail .
  • Cost discipline and margins: Las Vegas EBITDAR margin at 36.8%; Boston EBITDAR margin at 29.6%; Macau OpEx discipline positions leverage as market grows .
  • Capital returns and liquidity: $158.1M buybacks, $0.25 dividend; liquidity >$3.6B (cash + revolvers), WRF revolver +$500M and WM Cayman II revolver increased to $2.5B equivalent .

What Went Wrong

  • Hold headwinds in Macau: “VIP hold negatively impacted results… nearly $13M” EBITDA impact; Wynn Palace VIP win % 2.86% (below 3.1–3.4% expected and 4.10% YoY); mass win % down (22.3% vs 23.6% YoY) .
  • YoY EPS decline: GAAP diluted EPS fell to $0.64 (vs $0.91 YoY); adjusted EPS $1.09 (vs $1.12 YoY) .
  • Las Vegas midweek softness: ADR prioritized over occupancy amid macro/tariff uncertainty; table games hold slightly below expected range (21.8% vs 22–26%) .

Financial Results

Consolidated Results vs Prior Periods

MetricQ4 2024Q1 2025Q2 2025
Operating Revenues ($USD Billions)$1.84 $1.70 $1.74
GAAP Diluted EPS ($USD)$2.29 $0.69 $0.64
Adjusted EPS ($USD)$2.42 $1.07 $1.09
Adjusted Property EBITDAR ($USD Millions)$619.1 $532.9 $552.4
EBITDA ($USD Millions)$586.3*$434.6*$427.6*

Note: *Values retrieved from S&P Global.

Q/Q: Revenues +2.2% ($1.74B vs $1.70B), adjusted EPS +$0.02, EBITDAR +$19.5M .
Y/Y: Revenues +0.3%, GAAP EPS -$0.27, adjusted EPS -$0.03, EBITDAR -$19.3M .

Actual vs S&P Global Consensus (Q2 2025)

MetricActualConsensusSurprise
Operating Revenues ($USD Billions)$1.738 $1.747*-$0.010 (−0.6%)*
Adjusted EPS ($USD)$1.09 $1.195*-$0.10 (−8.9%)*
EBITDA ($USD Millions)$427.6*$551.7*-$124.1 (−22.5%)*

Note: *Values retrieved from S&P Global.

Segment Breakdown

SegmentQ2 2024 Revenues ($MM)Q1 2025 Revenues ($MM)Q2 2025 Revenues ($MM)Q2 2024 EBITDAR ($MM)Q1 2025 EBITDAR ($MM)Q2 2025 EBITDAR ($MM)
Las Vegas Operations$628.7 $625.3 $638.6 $230.3 $223.4 $234.8
Wynn Palace$548.0 $535.9 $539.6 $184.5 $161.9 $157.2
Wynn Macau$337.3 $330.0 $343.8 $95.9 $90.2 $96.5
Encore Boston Harbor$212.6 $209.2 $215.7 $62.1 $57.5 $63.9

KPIs (Selected Operating Metrics)

KPIWynn Palace Q2 2024Wynn Palace Q2 2025Wynn Macau Q2 2024Wynn Macau Q2 2025Las Vegas Q2 2024Las Vegas Q2 2025Encore Boston Q2 2024Encore Boston Q2 2025
Occupancy (%)98.9 98.7 99.4 99.4 90.9 89.2 96.5 92.9
ADR ($)$316 $232 $236 $216 $532 $548 $422 $405
REVPAR ($)$312 $229 $234 $215 $484 $489 $407 $376
VIP Win %4.10% 2.86% 2.19% 3.41% ————
Mass Win %23.6% 22.3% 17.5% 17.4% 21.9% 21.8% 19.6% 21.3%

Guidance Changes

MetricPeriodPrevious GuidanceCurrent GuidanceChange
Dividend per shareQ3 2025 payment$0.25 (Q1 announcement) $0.25 payable Aug 29, 2025 Maintained
Macau CapExFY 2025N/A$200–$250M total 2025 New specificity (range)
Encore Tower Remodel (Las Vegas)2026Tariff-driven uncertainty noted (Q1 call)Begin spring 2026; ~$330M; ~1 year duration Firmed timing/budget
Liquidity (Macau revolver)Post Q2Prior committed ~$1.5B eq.Upsized by $1.0B to $2.5B equivalent Raised
WRF RevolverJune 2025Prior facility+$500M incremental commitments; maturities extended to 2030 Raised/extended

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

TopicPrevious Mentions (Q4 2024, Q1 2025)Current Period (Q2 2025)Trend
Las Vegas demand/bookingRecord year in LV; Super Bowl tailwind; ADR pressure QoQ New Q2 EBITDAR record; July casino/retail strong; midweek softer but ADR prioritized Improving trajectory into Q4/2026
Macau hold/market shareVIP/high hold variability; maintained share VIP/mass hold headwinds; ~$13M EBITDA impact; July volumes accelerated Volumes strengthening; hold normalization expected
Costs/OpEx disciplineCorporate costs lumpy; property efficiencies LV OpEx/day +1% YoY; Boston OpEx/day flat; Macau OpEx/day +4.5% YoY Effective cost control despite labor pressures
Tariffs/macroTariff uncertainty impacting plans (refers back)Revised sourcing; Encore remodel timing confirmed; macro uncertainty noted Risk mitigated via procurement
UAE (Wynn Al Marjan)Financing completed; tower floors advancing Floor 61 poured; F&B/retail partnerships finalized; opening 2027; potential sole operator Execution progressing; upside if sole operator
Capital returnsRegular dividend; buybacks in Q4/Q1 $158M buybacks; $0.25 dividend; lender confidence Continued capital return, strong liquidity

Management Commentary

  • CEO on Las Vegas: “EBITDA in Las Vegas grew to a new second quarter record… demand was healthy… 14.5% increase in total casino revenues… continued momentum in July” .
  • CFO on margins and CapEx: “LV delivered a 36.8% EBITDA margin… Boston 29.6%… Macau 28.7%… expect $200M–$250M total CapEx in Macau for 2025” .
  • CEO on Macau: “Macau delivered solid results… unfavorable VIP hold costing us nearly $13M… volumes accelerated further in July” .
  • CEO on UAE: “We are pouring the sixty-first floor… finalized key partnerships… remain on track for 2027; anticipate being the only operator for some period of time” .

Q&A Highlights

  • Las Vegas outperformance drivers and outlook: Premium positioning, operational programming, and share gains; strong Q4 group pace and improved F1 positioning with maintained rates .
  • Macau market dynamics: Entertainment-driven visitation; reinvestment/promotion tuned daily (“hand-to-hand combat”); event center planned on Wynn Palace north parcel (subject to approvals; early 2028) .
  • Expense discipline: Flexible staffing aligned to volume; corporate expense lumpiness due to 20th anniversary-related items .
  • UAE pipeline building: Leveraging Mayfair, hosting leads, presence at key regional events, nightlife partnerships, and brand campaign pre-opening .

Estimates Context

  • Revenue: Actual $1.738B vs consensus $1.747B (−0.6% miss). Adjusted EPS: $1.09 vs $1.195 (−8.9% miss). EBITDA: $427.6M vs $551.7M (−22.5% miss)*.
  • Where estimates may adjust: Expect downward revisions to near-term normalized EPS/EBITDA to reflect Macau hold sensitivity and higher OpEx/day in Macau; conversely, Las Vegas forward booking strength and margin discipline may cushion H2 expectations .

Note: *Values retrieved from S&P Global.

Key Takeaways for Investors

  • Las Vegas remains a core earnings driver; record Q2 EBITDAR and July momentum signal resilient high-end demand and effective pricing strategy even with midweek softness .
  • Macau volumes improved in July, but Q2 hold was a notable drag; near-term beats will hinge on hold normalization and execution of premium initiatives (Chairman’s Club expansion, room refresh) .
  • Expect consensus recalibration lower on adjusted EPS/EBITDA given Q2 miss, particularly on EBITDA vs models relying on EBITDAR proxies*.
  • Balance sheet and liquidity strengthened materially (WRF +$500M, Macau revolver +$1.0B to $2.5B equiv.), enabling continued CapEx and shareholder returns ($158M buybacks; $0.25 dividend) .
  • 2026 set up: Strong group pace and convention business should support Las Vegas occupancy/mix; Encore Tower remodel ($330M) should elevate product positioning upon completion .
  • UAE Wynn Al Marjan is progressing quickly with potential sole-operator status initially—optionality for medium-term rerating as market awareness and regulatory clarity rise .
  • Trading lens: Q2 miss tied to variable hold rather than demand; watch monthly Macau GGR/hold, Las Vegas booking pace/F1 rates, and revolver usage; positive catalysts include July Macau acceleration and investor day visibility on UAE.

Note: *Values retrieved from S&P Global.